FNUS72 KMHX 141212
FWSMHX

SPOT FORECAST FOR 3 1 1 LAUREL BAY...USFWS ALLIGATOR RIVER NWR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
812 AM EDT THU APR 14 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON APRIL 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2100-3900 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............12     13     14     15
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................58     61     63     63
RH..................62     56     50     50
20 FT WIND (MPH)....N 6    N 5    N 5    NE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10
HAINES INDEX........4      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING EAST AROUND
                    5 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............15     16     16     17     17     17
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................61     57     55     54     53     52
RH..................56     64     72     74     77     83
20 FT WIND (MPH)....NE 5   E 5    E 5    E 4    E 4    E 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....                     5      5
HAINES INDEX........5      5      5      5      5      5

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2700-3200 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 17 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............18     18     23     29     33     35
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................51     51     55     58     60     60
RH..................86     86     77     67     60     62
20 FT WIND (MPH)....E 5    E 7    E 9    E 10   E 11   E 12
20 FT WIND GUST.....       10     15     15     20     20
HAINES INDEX........5      5      5      4      4      4

$$

FORECASTER...AUSTIN
REQUESTED BY...HELEN CZERNIK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110414.311LA.01/MHX