FNUS73 KPAH 132315 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR ALLEY SPRINGS...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 615 PM CDT WED APR 13 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON APRIL 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN...WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE JACKS FORK CREEK...GOING UP STREAM OR UPSLOPE THROUGH THE ALLEY SPRINGS TRIBUTARY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS BEFORE THE INVERSION BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND MIXING MORE DRAMATICALLY AFTER 10 AM CDT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. PART OF THE REASON FOR THE FASTER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE DUE TO THE DEEPENING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BORDER. A WARM FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...RISING FROM LESS THAN 10 PERCENT TO OVER 50 PERCENT. NOTE...DUE TO WEB COMMUNICATION MAINTENANCE...IT WAS NOT POSSIBLE TO VIEW THE HIGH RESOLUTION MAPS OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA IN THE ALLEY SPRINGS AREA OF THE OZARK NATIONAL SCENIC RIVERWAYS WEST OF EMINENCE. IT WAS NOT POSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY DETERMINE THE DIRECTION OF THE EXPOSED FACE OF THE TIMBER FOR THE PRESCRIBED BURN. YOU ARE URGED TO CALL TO GET AN UPDATED VERSION OF THIS PRESCRIBED BURN FORECAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PRIOR TO THE ACTUAL BURN TIME. ANOTHER SET OF FIRE WEATHER DATA WILL BE PRODUCED OVERNIGHT FOR THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 14 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............71 66 63 60 58 56 55 53 52 51 50 49 RH..............41 48 56 62 69 74 77 83 86 89 93 96 20 FT WIND DIR..S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 10 9 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 77. RH..................67 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-5300 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2100-2800 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 31 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............50 54 60 64 67 70 73 74 75 76 75 74 RH..............93 80 67 58 54 49 46 44 42 43 44 46 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4.4 3.6 2.8 2.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 12 14 16 18 21 23 25 28 30 31 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...CHARLENE NAZARENKO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110414.ALLEY.01/PAH