FNUS73 KPAH 141145 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR ALLEY SPRINGS...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 645 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON APRIL 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... MANY COMMUNITIES WILL BE CLOUDY AND WARMER TODAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...IT WILL PUSH A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A GOOD BET ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE HEARTLAND WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........59 AT IGNITION...MAX 75. RH..................64 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-5600 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2100-2900 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 35 MPH. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........PC MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............59 63 66 69 71 72 73 74 74 72 RH..............64 56 53 48 42 39 35 33 35 37 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 20 20 20 25 25 25 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 3.8 4.6 5.3 5.6 5.3 4.7 3.8 2.9 2.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.5 9 14 18 23 25 29 31 33 35 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH. CWR.................50 PERCENT INCREASING TO 89 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 28 TO 36 MPH DECREASING TO 23 TO 26 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............71 65 61 59 56 55 RH..............43 55 61 69 83 97 20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 7 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 1100 1200 1500 1500 1500 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 36 SE 36 SE 33 SE 31 SE 28 SE 25 CWR.............50 50 50 90 90 90 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65. RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. CWR.................58 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-5100 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 TO 31 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 32 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............55 60 63 64 RH..............100 90 68 56 20 FT WIND......SE 6G10 S 6G10 S 8G20 SW 9G20 MIX HGT (FT)....1900 3600 5100 4500 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 23 S 22 SW 24 SW 29 CWR.............60 60 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...PACKETT REQUESTED BY...DAN DREES TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110414.ALLEY.02/PAH