FNUS73 KJKL 151412 FWSJKL SPOT FORECAST FOR ALUM S R...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1012 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0910 EDT ON APRIL 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY AND PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXTRAPOLATING THE TIMING OF THE LINE OVER THE SAR AREA...IT SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 1:30 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING THIS LINE TO START TO FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES BECAUSE OF WARMING AND DRYING THAT IS CAUSED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...SO THIS LINE MUST BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE HOW MUCH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING IS EFFECTING THE SYSTEM. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF THE RIVER THAT ARE ORIENTED NW- SE SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO STRONG WINDS AS IT WILL TEND TO BE FUNNELED DOWN THE RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AGAIN. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH UNTIL EVENING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 4 AFTER 1700. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........41 53 74 90 100 100 WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR CHANCE CHANCE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............53 60 65 69 70 68 RH..............72 63 59 58 60 64 20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 10 S 10 S 10 SE 15 SE 15 20 FT WIND GUST.10 20 25 30 30 30 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE AT NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. LAL.................5 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 0400...THEN 1. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 92 84 WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............66 62 59 57 56 54 RH..............68 78 85 92 96 94 20 FT WIND......SE 10 S 10 S 10 SW 10 SW 9 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.35 30 25 25 20 15 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 35 MPH...THEN DECREASING TO 25 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING. LAL.................1. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........77 67 73 96 99 100 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN TEMP............53 55 56 57 57 56 RH..............85 72 64 58 55 54 20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 12 SW 14 SW 15 W 15 W 13 20 FT WIND GUST.15 25 30 35 30 25 $$ FORECASTER...JACOBSON REQUESTED BY...ROBIN ACCIARDO TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20110415.ALUMS.01/JKL