FNUS73 KMQT 151249 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR BURMA GRADE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 849 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON APRIL 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CAUSE INCREASING EAST WINDS TODAY. THE EAST WINDS WILL ALSO FUNNEL DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 25 PERCENT TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S AT THE BURN SITE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...REACHING EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 42. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 25 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WINDS EAST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 37 MPH INCREASING TO 28 TO 48 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (724) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1009) BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO GOOD (501) BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........30 40 50 60 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............41 42 42 41 RH..............33 28 25 27 GENERAL WIND....E 13 E 15 E 15 E 17 GENERAL GUST....18 20 20 25 VINDX KT-FT/100.813 926 1009 780 MIX HGT (FT)....3300 3600 3600 2400 HAINES INDEX....5 4 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN LIKELY LATE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 32. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 81 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......EAST WINDS 19 TO 24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 37 TO 60 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 46 TO 64 MPH BY LATE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...DECREASING TO POOR (66) IN THE EVENING THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (646) AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1500 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.20 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........71 79 90 98 99 100 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RAIN RAIN RAIN TEMP............37 34 33 35 34 33 RH..............31 44 51 49 66 79 GENERAL WIND....E 17 E 17 E 18 E 19 E 19 E 19 GENERAL GUST....30 30 35 35 35 35 VINDX KT-FT/100.227 66 221 528 736 773 MIX HGT (FT)....600 100 500 1100 1600 1600 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 2 2 2 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 43. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 66 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......EAST WINDS 19 TO 24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........2...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 40 TO 64 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AND DECREASING TO 11 TO 23 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (916) DECREASING TO GOOD (348) LATE. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.45 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN TEMP............33 35 41 43 43 41 RH..............80 81 73 74 74 78 GENERAL WIND....E 19 E 19 E 18 SE 12 SE 12 S 7 GENERAL GUST....35 35 30 30 30 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.695 862 855 607 348 164 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 1800 2100 2000 1700 1200 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...JLA REQUESTED BY...BEN WAGNER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110415.BURMA.01/MQT