FNUS74 KMAF 171147
FWSMAF

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCK HOUSE FIRE...SOUTHERN AREA IMT BLUE TEAM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0622 CDT ON APRIL 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING DANGER.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING AND DIRECTION GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY. THE COMBINATION OF SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES...
20 FOOT WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS
15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH POOR RH
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH EACH DAY WILL RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WORSE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........7 PCT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 21 TO 31 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 (HIGH).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (35000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (257000 KNOT-FT).
CHANCE OF PRECIP....0 PERCENT.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM         11 AM        3 PM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
CHC PCPN (%)....0            0            0
TEMP............54           69           79
RH..............31           12           7
20 FT WIND DIR..SW           SW           W
20 FT WIND SPD..10           18           28
20 FT WIND GUST.18           28           35
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100       2500         10000
TRANS WIND DIR..SW           W            W
TRANS WIND SPD..21           16           17
VENT CAT........POOR         FAIR         EXCLNT
HAINES INDEX....5            5            5

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........25 PCT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 (HIGH).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (220000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (7900 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....0 PERCENT.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM         11 PM        3 AM
SKY (%).........PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
CHC PCPN (%)....0            0            0
TEMP............80           66           60
RH..............7            13           18
20 FT WIND DIR..W            W            W
20 FT WIND SPD..31           23           21
20 FT WIND GUST.40           30           25
MIX HGT (FT)....11000        BLW100       BLW100
TRANS WIND DIR..W            W            W
TRANS WIND SPD..20           21           15
VENT CAT........EXCLNT       POOR         POOR
HAINES INDEX....6            6            6

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........6 PCT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS UP
                    TO 40 MPH INCREASING TO 45 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........5 (MODERATE).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (29200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (231000 KNOT-FT).
CHANCE OF PRECIP....0 PERCENT.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM         11 AM        3 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
CHC PCPN (%)....0            0            0
TEMP............55           70           79
RH..............24           16           10
20 FT WIND DIR..W            W            SW
20 FT WIND SPD..27           34           35
20 FT WIND GUST.35           45           45
MIX HGT (FT)....500          2000         8000
TRANS WIND DIR..W            W            W
TRANS WIND SPD..17           16           18
VENT CAT........POOR         POOR         VYGOOD
HAINES INDEX....5            4            4

$$

FORECASTER...VESPER
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT HAMLET SITL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110417.ROCKH.01/MAF