FNUS71 KCTP 181328 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR D-3C...ARMY NATIONAL GUARD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 928 AM EDT MON APR 18 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...WILL WAVER SLIGHTLY NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING EAST ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...WHILE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN DISTRICTS OF THE STATE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...SPARKING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THE UPCOMING 48 TO 60 HOUR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA...TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY UNDER ONE INCH ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................NO TSTMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 23 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 14 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 16 TO 20 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............67 71 74 81 84 83 80 76 WEATHER COV......... SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE........ RN RN RN TEMP................48 51 52 54 55 56 56 56 RH..................54 53 53 53 53 54 56 57 20 FT WIND DIR......SW S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......2 2 3 6 8 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....7 6 7 10 14 16 18 20 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LAL.................NO TSTMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............73 70 68 69 71 73 76 78 79 81 85 89 WEATHER COV......... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE........ RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN TEMP................56 55 55 54 52 51 50 49 48 48 48 48 RH..................61 65 69 71 73 75 77 80 82 84 85 86 20 FT WIND DIR......S S S SE SE E NE NE N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD......6 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SE SE SE E NE N N NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.....20 17 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 10 10 12 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55. MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 21 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............93 100 98 96 95 100 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RAIN RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................48 48 50 52 54 55 RH..................87 90 76 73 70 69 20 FT WIND..........NE 3 NE 5 NE 7 NE 8 NE 8 E 13 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 10 20 TRANSPORT WIND......NE 13 NE 15 E 15 E 13 E 12 E 21 LAL.................1 1 1 1 5 5 HAINES INDEX........3 2 2 2 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER REQUESTED BY...MR SHANNON HENRY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110418.D3C__.01/CTP