FNUS71 KCTP 171307 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR RANGE 38...PA ARNG NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 907 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... DEEP LOW PRESSURE...THAT BROUGHT SATURDAYS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH...OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A POOL OF MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 MPH TODAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING... THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR...OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA...MARYLAND BORDER. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 17 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 39 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 44 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............69 52 53 55 66 86 WEATHER COV.........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................46 46 48 51 55 55 RH..................88 61 57 48 42 43 20 FT WIND..........W 10 W 16 W 20 W 22 W 22 SW 21 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 25 35 40 40 35 TRANSPORT WIND......W 36 W 39 W 33 W 30 W 31 W 39 LAL.................1 1 1 1 4 4 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42. MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 8 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 2000...THEN NO TSTMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 48 TO 55 MPH...INCREASING TO 53 TO 58 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 38 TO 46 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST 26 TO 31 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............67 44 56 39 39 48 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................54 51 48 46 44 43 RH..................45 51 55 64 69 74 20 FT WIND..........SW 18 W 18 W 16 W 13 NW 10 W 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....35 30 25 20 15 15 TRANSPORT WIND......W 48 W 55 W 56 W 46 W 31 NW 28 LAL.................4 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 5 5 4 4 4 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1200...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 23 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............60 67 69 71 74 78 80 95 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV......... SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP................43 43 44 46 49 51 53 55 58 60 60 60 RH..................75 69 63 59 55 51 49 47 46 43 45 46 20 FT WIND DIR......W SW SW W W SW SW SW S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W SW SW S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....23 20 16 12 8 7 9 13 16 20 22 25 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 HAINES INDEX........4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER REQUESTED BY...SHANNON HENRY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110418.RANGE.01/CTP