FNUS76 KMFR 182112
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR INTERAGENCY HELICOPTER TRAINING...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
212 PM PDT MON APR 18 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1123 PDT ON APRIL 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE COAST IT WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING FROM JUST SOUTH OF MOUNT SHASTA NORTHWARD INTO
THE SHASTA VALLEY. DURING THIS PERIOD SHOWERS MAY BE SCATTERED.
THEN RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING
IN INTENSITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MODERATE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
FOR HIGH TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF MOUNT SHASTA.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS
PERIOD. CURRENTLY...MODELS ARE INDICATING SNOW LEVELS ARE
LIKELY TO RANGE BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THEN...WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES...SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 TO 4500 FEET. IN AREAS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAY SEE SOME LOWER CLOUD
DECKS OF AROUND 3000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DURING THE DAY.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN
                    IN THE AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53.
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 8 TO 14 MPH
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................90 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...CLARSTROM
REQUESTED BY...NICK MEYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20110418.INTER.01/MFR