FNUS71 KLWX 191006 FWSLWX SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH NEW ROAD RUN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 606 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TODAY BEFORE PUSHING NORTH THIS EVENING. EXPECT SLY FLOW GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4700-5400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 8 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 18 TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........94 92 81 72 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............62 67 70 71 RH..............56 50 47 47 20 FT WIND......SW 8 SW 9 SW 12 SW 11 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 25 25 CWR.............40 30 30 40 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59. MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CWR.................40 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........66 64 54 60 84 83 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............70 67 65 63 62 61 RH..............51 61 65 67 65 65 20 FT WIND......S 10 S 10 SW 10 SW 12 SW 13 SW 11 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 25 30 25 CWR.............40 10 10 0 0 0 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500-6800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 22 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 41 TO 47 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........51 57 56 55 55 51 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............61 63 68 71 74 74 RH..............67 67 61 55 48 43 20 FT WIND......SW 10 SW 10 SW 13 SW 14 SW 14 SW 14 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 30 30 30 CWR.............0 10 10 40 40 40 $$ FORECASTER...JACKSON REQUESTED BY...DUTY OFFICER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110419.NORTH.02/LWX