FNUS71 KRNK 182043 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR UPPER CRAIG CRK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 443 PM EDT MON APR 18 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT WINDS TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WIND FLOW WILL DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH THE PROBABILITY OF ANY RAIN 30 PERCENT OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A HIGHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH IN THE MORNING... INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGE TOP. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. CWR (0.01 IN).......30 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 TO 25 MPH. REMARKS.............WIND FLOW LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THIS BURN. SINCE THE BURN WILL BE CONDUCTED ON THE LOWER PART OF THE SLOPE...THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY NOT MIX INTO THE LOWER PART OF THE VALLEY. WINDS MAY EVEN BE CALM BETWEEN 6:00-9:00 AM THEN BEGIN TO STIR ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 9:30 AND 10:00 AM. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............53 65 68 67 66 72 WEATHER COV......... ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................56 58 64 68 71 74 RH..................75 68 47 40 41 38 20 FT WIND..........SW 3 SW 3 SW 6 SW 8 SW 10 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....7 7 12 15 20 20 CWR.................10 10 10 20 20 30 .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57. MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 29 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............81 88 77 72 73 78 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE RNSHWR TEMP................73 69 66 64 62 61 RH..................41 55 60 64 66 67 20 FT WIND..........SW 10 SW 10 SW 10 SW 12 SW 12 SW 12 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 25 30 35 40 40 CWR.................20 20 20 10 10 20 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 14 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...DECREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR (0.01 IN).......60 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 33 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............75 67 68 73 69 80 WEATHER COV.........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................59 61 66 70 73 74 RH..................72 72 66 58 49 45 20 FT WIND..........SW 18 SW 16 W 16 W 14 W 13 W 14 20 FT WIND GUST.....40 35 35 30 30 30 CWR.................20 40 40 40 60 60 $$ FORECASTER...MANUEL REQUESTED BY...RON NIXON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110419.UPPER.01/RNK