FNUS71 KCTP 201305
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR LAUREL RUN WARM SEASON GRASS...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
905 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THURSDAY HIGHS 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MINIMUM RH MAY DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT
IN MANY AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

.TODAY...

LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 0800...THEN NO TSTMS UNTIL
                    1100...THEN 16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1700...THEN NO TSTMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 25 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 37
                    TO 44 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
TRANSPORT WIND......S 16   SW 25  SW 29  SW 36  W 44   W 40
LAL.................4      4      4      4      3      3
HAINES INDEX........3      3      3      3      4      4

.TONIGHT...

LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 26 TO 33 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
TRANSPORT WIND......W 33   W 28   W 26   W 28   W 30   W 29
LAL.................1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX........4      4      4      4      3      3

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 33 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
                    22 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............48  46  42  37  34  33  33  35  32  32  32  32
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TEMP................37  36  39  41  43  46  47  49  50  51  53  50
RH..................79  75  74  65  58  50  46  42  39  36  33  36
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......16  16  16  14  14  14  14  14  14  12  12  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....25  25  25  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
TRANSP WIND DIR.W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....29  30  31  32  32  33  32  30  29  26  24  22
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER
REQUESTED BY...TERRY STEMMLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110421.LAURE.01/CTP