FNUS74 KEPZ 211856
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SAN ANDRES RX...US FWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1256 PM MDT THU APR 21 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 MDT ON APRIL 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR 20 FOOT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE BURN SITE...MAINLY FROM NOW
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE WILL CARRY INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...AND
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BURN SITE...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED BUT PROMINENT NATURE OF THE RANGE THIS FIRE IS IN...WE MAY SEE
WEAKER SUSTAINED W-SW WINDS AND GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
UPPER REACHES OF THE FIRE WHERE EXPOSURE IS THE GREATEST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING...INCREASING
                    TO 17 TO 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS TO 32 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 KNOTS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
MAX HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 9 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-200 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....UPPER REACHES OF FIRE: WEST-SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH THROUGH
                    MIDNIGHT...DECREASING AND SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 TO
                    15 MPH THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
                    LOWER REACHES OF FIRE: WEST-SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH EARLY
                    THIS EVENING...DECREASING AND SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST
                    4 TO 8 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST-SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING...INCREASING
                    15 TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    TO 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

$$
FORECASTER...TRIPOLI
REQUESTED BY...RYAN WHITEAKER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110421.SANAN.01/EPZ