FNUS74 KMAF 211943
FWSMAF

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCK HOUSE FIRE...SOUTHERN AREA IMT BLUE TEAM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
243 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1303 MDT ON APRIL 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING DANGER.

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

...HIGH HAINES INDEX THROUGH FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BURN AREA... BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON BUILDUPS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT RETURN TO
THE BURN AREA TONIGHT...SO ONLY FAIR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM RH/S ONCE AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
RIDGES ON FRIDAY AS DRY...WEST WINDS INCREASE.

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS
                    ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BURN AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92.
MIN HUMIDITY........6 PCT.
WIND (20 FT)........RIDGES...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH.
                    VALLEYS...UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 (HIGH).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (216000 KNOT-FT).
CHANCE OF PRECIP....0 PERCENT.

TIME (MDT)      1 PM         5 PM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR       PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE
CHC PCPN (%)....0            0
TEMP............87           91
RH..............9            5
20 FT WIND DIR..SW           SW
20 FT WIND SPD..9            13
20 FT WIND GUST.10           20
MIX HGT (FT)....12000        16000
TRANS WIND DIR..SW           SW
TRANS WIND SPD..18           19
VENT CAT........EXCLNT       EXCLNT
HAINES INDEX....6            6

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
MAX HUMIDITY........38-43 PCT.
WIND (20 FT)........RIDGES...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
                    VALLEYS...TERRAIN DOMINATED UNDER 5 MPH BECOMING
                    DOWNVALLEY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 (HIGH).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (216000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....0 PERCENT.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR       MCLEAR       CLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
CHC PCPN (%)....0            0            0
TEMP............92           68           60
RH..............5            17           13
20 FT WIND DIR..SW           W            W
20 FT WIND SPD..13           13           11
20 FT WIND GUST.20           22
MIX HGT (FT)....13500        BLW100       BLW100
TRANS WIND DIR..SW           W            W
TRANS WIND SPD..16           12           6
VENT CAT........EXCLNT       POOR         POOR
HAINES INDEX....6            6            6

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-89.
MIN HUMIDITY........7 PCT.
WIND (20 FT)........RIDGES...WEST WINDS 15 TO 19 MPH.
                    CANYONS...TERRAIN DOMINATED UNDER 5 MPH...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 9 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 (HIGH).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (213000 KNOT-FT) IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....0 PERCENT.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
SKY (%).........CLEAR        CLEAR        CLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
CHC PCPN (%)....0            0            0
TEMP............53           77           88
RH..............43           14           8
20 FT WIND DIR..SW           W            W
20 FT WIND SPD..10           14           19
20 FT WIND GUST.             20           27
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100       3000         9000
TRANS WIND DIR..SW           W            W
TRANS WIND SPD..7            16           19
VENT CAT........POOR         FAIR         EXCLNT
HAINES INDEX....6            5            5

$$

FORECASTER...PLATT
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT HAMLET SITL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110421.ROCKH.01/MAF