FNUS71 KCTP 262103 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR RANGE 38 UPDATE 2...PA NATIONAL GUARD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 503 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1705 EDT ON APRIL 26. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... STRONG DAYTIME TEMPERATURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 10 PM. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 20-30 MPH UNTIL THE INVERSION TAKES HOLD AFTER SUNSET. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH ABOVE CRITERIA. THE BIGGEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. ONCE THE INVERSION FORMS STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 6 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 0200...THEN NO TSTMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 30 TO 38 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............74 80 85 91 96 96 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................78 74 70 67 65 64 RH..................53 59 67 74 79 85 20 FT WIND..........S 16 S 15 S 12 S 8 SE 7 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 10 TRANSPORT WIND......S 30 S 33 S 36 SW 37 SW 37 S 32 LAL.................3 3 3 3 4 4 HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 3 3 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 23 TO 31 MPH...INCREASING TO 33 TO 36 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............96 97 95 92 90 92 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................63 64 68 71 75 76 RH..................89 91 83 75 66 65 20 FT WIND..........SE 5 SE 5 SE 8 SE 10 S 12 S 12 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 15 15 15 TRANSPORT WIND......S 28 S 24 S 23 S 24 S 29 S 33 LAL.................3 3 3 3 4 4 HAINES INDEX........4 2 2 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP REQUESTED BY...SHANNON HENRY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110426.RANGE.03/CTP