FNUS75 KRIW 251918
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FREAK MT UNIT 7...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
118 PM MDT MON APR 25 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 MDT ON APRIL 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL IMPACT
THE REGION TODAY THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL CLEAR SKIES AND RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY IMPACT.

FLOW WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY..THEN BACK
TO WEST FOR WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 25 MPH AT RIDGE TOP ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SNOW LIKELY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-38.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-55 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
                    5-9 MPH...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH
                    WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO
                    AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 23 TO 26 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 14
                    TO 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (23200-65500 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
                    IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-23.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-100 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH AND GUSTY UNTIL
                    EARLY MORNING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7
                    MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16 TO 22 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 8
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (14700-45400 KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-45.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (39800-86100 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 16 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH.
.FRIDAY...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 18 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...ANDY MCWILLIAMS
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110426.FREAK.01/RIW