FNUS75 KRIW 281916
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR MOSS RANCH LITTLE MTN...IA CDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
116 PM MDT THU APR 28 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 MDT ON APRIL 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS SPOT FORECAST USING ON SITE
OBSERVATION AT 1200. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...WIND SPEEDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS NEARBY MORE EXPOSED RAWS SITE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER AND HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO BE MORE MOIST.

WEATHER SYSTEM STILL ON TAP TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WITH COLD
FRONT DROPPING DOWN OUT OF MONTANA THIS EVENING AROUND 2200 AT
BURN SITE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...WITH ERRATIC DIRECTION BEHAVIOR GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BURN SITE. GUSTS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
AROUND TO WEST THEN NORTH OVER AN HOUR PERIOD FROM 2100 TO 2200...WITH
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING SHORTLY AFTER. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE BURN SITE OVERNIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ON
FRIDAY...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH
HUMIDITIES INCREASING.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MCDONALD

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (80 PERCENT) BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT (125000-180000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-30.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-90 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH...SHIFTING THE NORTH AROUND 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH BETWEEN 2100
                    2200. NOTE - THIS SHIFT IS A COLD FRONT MOVING
                    DOWN OUT OF MONTANA.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 15 MPH AROUND 2200.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.90 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 2200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (112500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO GOOD
                    (70000 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) WITH NUMEROUS
                    SNOW SHOWERS...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60
                    PERCENT) WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....32-36.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 MPH
                    ...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH
                    WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH 20 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 20
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 28 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (63000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (150000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MCDONALD
REQUESTED BY...RXB2 MONONI
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110428.MOSSR.02/RIW