FNUS75 KPUB 300204
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAND GULCH...EL PASO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
804 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH NORTHWEST PUEBLO COUNTY AT THIS TIME.
AT ITS CURRENT RATE OF TRAVEL...IT SHOULD REACH THE BURN SITE BETWEEN 845 PM
AND 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT
15 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH.  AFTER THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO...WINDS SHOULD
THEN SHIFT AROUND TO AN EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...PROBABLY 10-20
MPH FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING
HUMIDITIES TO THE SITE.

A MUCH COOLER...HIGHER HUMIDITY AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY.
COOL...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES 30-35 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY'S READINGS...RESULTING IN MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITIES THAN
THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY.  ALSO...THE MOIST EAST WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY.  PEAK GUSTS COULD HIT AROUND 25
MPH AT TIMES...MUCH LESS THAN THE 60-80 MPH GUSTS EXPERIENCED TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON'T LOOK GREAT THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE BURN SITE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30F.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH UNTIL
                    AROUND 2045...THEN BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY 15-30 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH UNTIL AROUND 2200...THEN BECOMING
                    EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10-20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 35 MPH UNTIL 2045...THEN AROUND 10
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2045...THEN GOOD UNTIL
                    2145...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40F.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10-20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN EAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1400...THEN NORTH AROUND 8
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...VIRPI MATTSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110429.SANDG.02/PUB