FNUS73 KAPX 011314 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH BLOCK 5...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 914 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0910 EDT ON MAY 1. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...WILL PROBABLY CROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH...SUSTAINED IN THE 12 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 22 TO 26 MPH. IT'S POSSIBLE WINDS MAY LET UP A BIT PRIOR TO COLD FRONT PASSAGE...BUT WITH THE FRONT PASSING EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY BUT SHOULD SEE MORE SUN TOWARD MIDDAY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER TONIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 68. RH..................61 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 26 TO 33 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (2300). TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........82 82 54 54 54 46 46 46 43 WEATHER COV.....M M M M M M M M M WEATHER TYPE....M M M M M M M M M TEMP............55 57 60 63 66 68 68 68 66 RH..............61 57 51 44 38 33 30 27 27 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 10 12 11 15 16 16 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 25 20 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......100 100 200 600 13002100230023002100 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37. RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 33 MPH DECREASING TO 14 TO 23 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1900-2200 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 2. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN GOOD(300). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........43 43 59 59 59 66 66 66 75 75 75 75 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RN RN RN RN RN RN RN TEMP............64 61 58 54 50 46 45 43 41 41 40 39 RH..............28 31 34 40 48 55 60 65 73 73 79 82 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..14 12 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST.30 25 20 20 20 20 20 15 15 10 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 SMOKE DISP......1900160013001000800 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 54. RH..................MIN 35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800-5900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(900). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........75 39 39 39 57 57 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RAIN NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............39 40 46 51 53 53 RH..............82 79 55 41 33 32 20 FT WIND......W 2 W 4 W 6 W 6 SW 7 W 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......300 300 500 600 800 900 $$ FORECASTER...JOHN BORIS REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110501.SOUTH.01/APX