FNUS73 KAPX 011318 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SUMMERS RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 918 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MAY 1. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...WILL PROBABLY CROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH...SUSTAINED IN THE 12 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 22 TO 26 MPH. IT'S POSSIBLE WINDS MAY LET UP A BIT PRIOR TO COLD FRONT PASSAGE...BUT WITH THE FRONT PASSING EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY BUT SHOULD SEE MORE SUN TOWARD MIDDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 68. RH..................29 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 33 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (2000) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (2200). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........41 41 41 41 WEATHER COV.....M M M M WEATHER TYPE....M M M M TEMP............68 68 68 66 RH..............29 27 27 28 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..13 14 15 15 20 FT WIND GUST.25 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......2000220022002000 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36. RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 32 MPH DECREASING TO 14 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1900 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 2. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN GOOD(300). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........41 41 56 56 56 61 61 61 69 69 69 69 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............64 61 58 54 50 45 44 42 41 40 39 38 RH..............29 31 34 40 46 58 62 70 73 76 79 82 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW W W W W SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..14 13 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 20 FT WIND GUST.30 25 20 20 20 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 SMOKE DISP......180015001200900 700 600 500 500 500 400 300 300 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 54. RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600-5600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(900). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........69 34 34 34 58 58 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............38 40 46 50 53 53 RH..............82 70 51 39 32 31 20 FT WIND......W 3 W 5 W 6 W 7 SW 7 W 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......300 300 500 700 700 900 $$ FORECASTER...JOHN BORIS REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110501.SUMME.01/APX