FNUS73 KAPX 011544 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR WILBUR...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1144 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON MAY 1. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CROSSING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AT LATE MORNING...LIKELY TO PASS THE AREA OF CONCERN IN THE 3 TO 5 PM TIME RANGE. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE EXPECTED. CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN BY MID AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER POPPING UP. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 69. RH..................48 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 13 MPH AT IGNITION...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. AFTER 3 PM BECOMING SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 17 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 26 TO 33 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5000-6000 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1300) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (2300). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........63 50 40 20 9 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............65 67 69 69 67 RH..............48 43 36 32 32 20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..13 11 14 15 15 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 30 35 35 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......13002000230023002000 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37. RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 32 MPH DECREASING TO 13 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1800-1900 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 2. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN GOOD(300). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........9 9 58 58 58 64 64 64 73 73 73 73 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RN RN RN RN RN RN RN TEMP............64 60 57 53 50 47 45 43 42 41 40 39 RH..............31 33 35 43 50 58 62 67 70 76 79 82 20 FT WIND DIR..SW W W W W W W W W W SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..13 11 9 9 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST.30 25 20 20 20 20 20 15 10 10 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 SMOKE DISP......1800150012001000700 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 54. RH..................MIN 32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700-5700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(900). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........73 37 37 37 57 57 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RAIN NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............39 40 46 51 53 53 RH..............82 76 55 41 33 32 20 FT WIND......W 2 W 4 W 6 W 6 SW 7 W 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......300 300 500 600 700 900 $$ FORECASTER...JOHN BORIS REQUESTED BY...GIFFORD TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110501.WILBU.01/APX