FNUS73 KAPX 021352
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CRYSTAL BARRENS...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
952 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON MAY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS COULD MOVE LATER AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES
TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...AND CAUSE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 40 PERCENT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........49 AT IGNITION...MAX 51.
RH..................40 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 9 MPH WITH
                    OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 13
                    TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3000-4800 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (900).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........49  44  44  44  55
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............49  50  50  50  50
RH..............40  37  36  34  34
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......600 600 700 800 900

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110502.CRYST.01/APX