FNUS73 KAPX 021817
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILBUR RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MAY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRIER AIR IS TAKING ITS TIME
TO GET TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT THE
BURN SITE ISN'T EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH BELOW 40 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL
TERRAIN TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE OR UP VALLEY WINDS. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE BURN
SITE. IF IT DOES MAKE IT TO THE BURN SITE...IT WOULD BE AROUND
500 PM AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 57.
RH..................MIN 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(800).

TIME (EDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........68  68  66
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............55  55  55
RH..............40  40  40
20 FT WIND DIR..S   SW  W
20 FT WIND SPD..2   3   4
20 FT WIND GUST.
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......600 700 800

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 31.
RH..................MAX 85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 6
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-2000 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(100).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........66  66  86  86  86  86  86  86  78  78  78  78
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............55  53  50  47  42  38  37  36  34  33  35  34
RH..............40  43  48  49  57  70  72  75  82  85  78  82
20 FT WIND DIR..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SMOKE DISP......800 700 600 400 300 200 100 100 100 100 100 100

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...JAE NAUGLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110502.WILBU.01/APX