FNUS71 KPBZ 021426
FWSPBZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR MCCONNELLS MILL...BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1026 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1017 EDT ON MAY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT, COMING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MIDWEST, WILL STALL
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SO PROVIDE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REPLACE THE
FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 14 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...22
REQUESTED BY...JOHN BRUNDEGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20110502.MCCON.01/PBZ