FNUS73 KAPX 031100 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR CURTIS PINES N S...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 700 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. MAINLY QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. INITIAL NORTH WINDS AT THE FIRE SITE THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOMEWHAT ONSHORE...FROM THE NORTHEAST...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FIRE SITE WILL BE CLOSE TO A CONVERGENCE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON... SEPARATING NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER. THUS...THOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT THE FIRE SITE...AN OCCASIONAL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........45 AT IGNITION...MAX 49. RH..................47 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3700-4600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (300). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........86 86 86 86 86 81 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............45 47 48 48 48 48 RH..............47 42 40 40 40 40 20 FT WIND DIR..N NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 4 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......300 200 200 200 300 300 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34. RH..................MAX 78 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1500 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(100). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........81 81 79 79 79 79 79 79 72 72 72 72 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............47 45 44 42 40 38 38 37 36 36 35 35 RH..............43 47 49 53 59 64 64 70 72 72 78 78 20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E NE NW W W NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 10 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......300 300 200 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(2300). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........72 41 41 41 31 31 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............35 40 49 56 59 59 RH..............78 64 44 31 27 27 20 FT WIND......NW 6 N 7 N 7 N 7 N 7 N 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 5 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 100 800 1600 1800 2200 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110503.CURTI.01/APX