FNUS73 KDMX 031012 FWSDMX SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK CREEK RX...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 512 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON MAY 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. PLEASE REMEMBER TO SUBMIT A MID BURN OBSERVATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THEY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57. MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTH 10 TO 16 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (41200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (121400 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........12 9 11 11 9 9 7 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............49 51 53 55 56 55 54 RH..............34 30 28 25 24 26 30 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 9 9 9 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.N N N N N N N EYE LVL WND SPD.7 7 7 6 6 6 6 EYE LVL WND GST.15 15 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...6.9 7.9 8.4 8.9 9.3 8.9 8.4 MIXNG WIND DIR..N N N N N N N MIXNG WIND SPD..16 16 16 15 15 16 16 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33. MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 2 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 2 TO 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 2 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (103500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (1000 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........5 20 19 17 15 14 1 13 13 13 13 13 WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY PTY PTY WEATHER TYPE.... FST FST FST FST TEMP............53 50 47 45 43 42 40 39 37 36 36 35 RH..............32 37 42 47 51 55 59 62 70 72 72 78 20 FT WIND DIR..N N NW NW W SW SW S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..9 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 5 5 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 5 5 5 EYE LVL WND DIR.N N NW NW W SW SW S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.6 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...8.0 5.4 2.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 MIXNG WIND DIR..N NE NE NE N NW W W W W SW S MIXNG WIND SPD..15 10 6 2 2 3 5 5 3 3 2 2 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 15 TO 22 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (21500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (107100 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........9 29 34 53 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............35 50 59 64 RH..............78 46 34 31 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 12G15 S 16G20 S 15G20 EYE LEVEL WIND..S 4G5 S 9G15 S 11G20 S 11G20 MIX HGT (FT)....300 3200 5600 5900 MIXNG WIND......SE 3 SE 15 S 18 S 21 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...BEERENDS REQUESTED BY...DAN PAULSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110503.ELKCR.01/DMX