FNUS75 KPUB 041206
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAND GULCH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
606 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY
FUELS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224...230...233 AND 237...WHICH
INCLUDES THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE RED FLAG CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPACT THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ZONES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY.
FARTHER NORTH...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH
NO UPGRADE TO A WARNING BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  LATEST
MODELS HAVE AN INITIAL COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND...MAIN COLD FRONT DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY REACH
THE BURN AREA.  THE SECOND FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE BURN
AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY...AND
INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...UNTIL
THE SECOND FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING...SHIFTING THE WINDS
AROUND TO EASTERLY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MAINLY BE DRY AND WINDY...BUT THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE PLAINS
TO THE EAST OF THE BURN AREA...BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...THE PLAINS WILL SEE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT DOWN.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ON THE
RISE AGAIN.  HUMIDITIES WILL PROBABLY REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.  WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE...BUT THEY
WILL PROBABLY REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AS WELL.

TUESDAY COULD ALSO BE A HIGH FIRE DANGER DAY OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA...BEFORE A STRONG STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY ARRIVES LATER IN
THE DAY.  THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN TO
THE DISTRICT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS 10-15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 9000 FT AGL AFTER 1100.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1300.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35F.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH UNTIL 1900...THEN BECOMING
                    EASTERLY 5-15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN SOUTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN GOOD UNTIL
                    2000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...THEN SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62F.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........VARIABLE 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING EASTERLY 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 10500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN WEST
                    AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110503.SANDG.02/PUB