FNUS73 KAPX 041216
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FLETCHER UNIT 1...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
816 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...QUITE THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN.
THAT SAID...THE AIR MASS IS ALSO VERY DRY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AFTER IGNITION...DUE TO DEEP
MIXING INTO THE DRY AIR. WINDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG...WITH
NO WIND SHIFTS EXPECTED...BUT WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS MAY
BE DROPPING OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........54 AT IGNITION...MAX 61.
RH..................36 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
                    15 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 17
                    TO 22 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 9700
                    FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (2000).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........5   5   8   8   8   3
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............53  55  57  59  60  59
RH..............36  31  28  25  23  24
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  20  20
HAINES INDEX....5   4   4   4   5   5
SMOKE DISP......160018001800190020001900

$$
FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110504.FLETC.01/APX