FNUS72 KMLB 041145
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR JAY    ANGELS...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
745 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. AS THE
FRONT PASSES THE BURN SITE...APPROXIMATELY AROUND NOON
TODAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY TODAY.
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. WHILE DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...THE QUICK
TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLEVIATE ANY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONCERNS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD LATE MORNING AND IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TO
                    NORTHEAST 8 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    13 TO 14 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....47.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....            RW  TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............67  71  75  79  79  79  80  79  78  77  76  75
RH..............100 87  76  67  67  67  65  67  69  71  74  76
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  N   NNE NNE NNE NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   5   8   8   8   12  12  12  9   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.            10  10  10  15  15  15  10  10  10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-800 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 14 TO 21 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....14.
LVORI...............4.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4200 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 14 TO 21 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....48.
LVORI...............0.

$$
FORECASTER...WEITLICH
REQUESTED BY...CYNTHIA BRANHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110504.JAYAN.01/MLB