FNUS73 KMQT 041205 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR TROUT LAKE RD...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 805 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL...AND LIGHT WINDS. THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY...SO EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON TO BOTTOM OUT AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND AND MORE CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SLIGHTLY LIMIT THE DIURNAL RECOVERY OF RELATIVELY HUMIDITY AT THE FIRE SITE TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH EDGES CLOSER ON THURSDAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE FIRE SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHILE THE TROUGH WEAKENS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE NO MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH AT THE FIRE SITE. LOOK FOR RELATIVELY COOL BUT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....49 AT IGNITION...MAX 60. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY LATE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 13 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (276) AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (893) IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO FAIR (194) EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...THEN INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND DECREASING TO 5000-6500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........12 14 15 21 26 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............49 56 58 58 56 RH..............43 28 24 23 27 GENERAL WIND....N 6 N 6 N 7 N 6 N 6 GENERAL GUST....10 10 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.276 692 888 682 194 MIX HGT (FT)....3900 7700 8900 6800 3200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 34. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 83 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 4 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH BY LATE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 13 TO 26 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (13). MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1600 FT AGL. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........27 31 37 41 45 50 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............55 48 42 39 37 35 RH..............30 42 55 64 70 78 GENERAL WIND....NE 5 NE 5 SE 5 S 6 S 6 S 6 GENERAL GUST.... 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.82 20 14 40 43 22 MIX HGT (FT)....1600 400 100 300 300 100 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 59. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 37 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (523) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1473). MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-4600 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO 0.03 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........54 57 60 63 71 81 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............35 46 54 57 58 57 RH..............82 54 40 37 39 43 GENERAL WIND....S 6 S 6 S 9 S 10 S 10 S 9 GENERAL GUST....15 15 20 20 20 20 VINDX KT-FT/100.45 334 722 1148 1389 1473 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1700 3100 4100 4500 4600 $$ FORECASTER...JLA REQUESTED BY...AVERY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110504.TROUT.02/MQT