FNUS75 KPUB 042139
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAND GULCH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
339 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224...230...233 AND 237...WHICH INCLUDES
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...

.DISCUSSION...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT TIMES OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ZONES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST REAL TIME DATA AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHEN THE FRONT
WILL BE ENTERING NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER THE
BURN AREA FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
WINDS THEN DECREASING. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BURN AREA INTO THE EVENING...WITH LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH HOUR.  ALSO SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
MAY MATERIALIZE TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...THE PLAINS SHOULD EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS IN
COMBINATION WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT DOWN ON
THURSDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREATS SHOULD BE NOTED AGAIN.  MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
CAPABLE OF REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY...WHILE CRITICAL LEVEL
WINDS ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS DURING THE FRIDAY INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
TUESDAY TIME-FRAME.

LATEST COMPUTER MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED
COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FIRE DISTRICT FROM LATER
TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2200...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-36F.
MAX HUMIDITY........72-81 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AROUND 12 MPH UNTIL 2100
                    WITH GUSTS TO 28 MPH AT TIMES...THEN
                    EAST AROUND 6 MPH..
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 21 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN NORTH
                    AROUND 7 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN SOUTH AROUND 5
                    MPH UNTIL 0500...THEN WEST AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-67F.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-24 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST AROUND 6 MPH
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 10000 FT AGL AFTER 0900.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. GOOD AFTER 0900.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110504.SANDG.01/PUB