FNUS75 KGJT 061459
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DEER PEN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
859 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON....

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND AFTERNOON MIXING UP TO ABOUT 13,000 FEET MSL TAPPING INTO WEST
GRADIENT WINDS OF 30 MPH. AS USUAL MIXING WILL COLLAPSE QUICKLY
BEFORE SUNSET. UPPER FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. A FEW
DEGREES OF EXTRA WARMING PRODUCES AFTERNOON MIXING AS HIGH AS
14,000 FEET MSL.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-17%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 8-14 MPH BY NOON
                    WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (25000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (300000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-16%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 5-10 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED GUST TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR. INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN CONRAD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110505.DEERP.02/GJT