FNUS75 KGJT 062123
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DEER PEN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
323 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSED THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS PRODUCED SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND AFTERNOON MIXING UP TO ABOUT 13,000 FEET MSL TAPPING INTO WEST
GRADIENT WINDS OF 30 MPH. AS USUAL MIXING WILL COLLAPSE QUICKLY
WITH SUNSET. UPPER FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. A FEW
DEGREES OF EXTRA WARMING PRODUCES AFTERNOON MIXING AS HIGH AS
14,000 FEET MSL. DRY CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH
WILL COMBINE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-17%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 8-14 MPH BY NOON
                    WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (25000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (300000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10-15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900 INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    BY NOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 28 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN CONRAD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110505.DEERP.02/GJT