FNUS72 KMFL 051834 FWSMFL SPOT FORECAST FOR JARHEAD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 234 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. SPOT FORECAST FOR JARHEAD...NPS BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 227 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2011 ...CORRECTED TO ADD WIND GUST CHANCE... FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MAY 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE FIRE SITE AND WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SOME SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS CURRENTLY THAT MAY AFFECT THE FIRE ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY NORTHEAST OF JARHEAD AND THESE ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SO THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY FROM ABOUT 3 PM OR SHORTLY AFTER UNTIL AROUND 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. NONE OF THE SHOWERS ARE LOOKING VERY OMINOUS AS OF YET, BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP IT COULD PRODUCE A WIND GUST TO AROUND 35 OR 40 MPH. MORE THAN LIKELY IF THIS OCCURS THE STORM WOULD BE TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE FIRE AND THE DIRECTION WOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 88. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. LAL.................3. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-4500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 10 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....32. LVORI...............1. TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM SKY (%).........70 70 70 70 70 70 70 50 50 50 50 50 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............88 88 86 83 82 80 77 74 72 70 68 68 RH..............52 52 55 61 64 68 76 84 90 96 100 100 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E EYE LVL WND SPD.7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 EYE LVL WND GST.15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 MIXNG WIND DIR..NE NE NE E E E E E E NE NE NE MIXNG WIND SPD..10 10 10 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 DISPERSION IDX..30 30 30 34 34 34 6 6 6 3 3 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 20 LAL.............3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 65. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....4. LVORI...............9. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 86. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-4000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-4500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....13 INCREASING TO 39 IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LVORI...............4. $$ FORECASTER...BRABANDER REQUESTED BY...TURNBO TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE $$ REQUESTED BY...TURNBO REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE