FNUS76 KMFR 051046
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR WATERS CK   20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
346 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 PDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER AIR MASS TO
THE BURN AREA TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY SLOPE DRIVEN AT THE LOWER END OF THE BURN BUT THE TOP END
MAY SEE STRONGER WESTERLY WIND. MIXING WILL BE GOOD DURING THE DAY
BUT TRANSPORT WIND WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND SMOKE
LAYERING IN THE LOWER DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE. THE TREND IS FOR THE
WESTERLY FLOW TO BRING MORE CLOUD TO THE BURN AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT STARTING TO SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WEEKEND APPEARS WET WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING
UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........61 AT IGNITION...MAX 72-73.
RH..................50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE WIND 2 TO 3 MPH...EXCEPT
                    NORTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH AT THE UPPER END OF
                    THE BURN.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO
                    6000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42.
RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WIND 2 TO 4 MPH IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE WIND 0 TO 2 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 2000...THEN DECREASING TO
                    LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 67-70.
RH..................MIN 30-35 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE WIND 1 TO 2 MPH...BECOMING WEST 2 TO 3 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 65. NORTHWEST WIND 2
TO 3 MPH.
.MONDAY.....CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTHWEST
WIND 3 TO 5 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BUNNAG
REQUESTED BY...SEAN HENDRIX
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110505.WATER.01/MFR