FNUS73 KUNR 051402
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK RUN RX...GREAT PLAINS DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
802 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE BURN AREA TODAY...WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DEVELOPING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........58 AT IGNITION...MAX 65.
RH..................28 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 7 TO 12 MPH AT IGNITION...
                    SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 TO 7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 41.
RH..................MAX 62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    WEST 6 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 TO 900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63.
RH..................MIN 32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 TO 8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT.

$$
FORECASTER...JJ
REQUESTED BY...JAY WICKHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110505.ELKRU.02/UNR