FNUS73 KDMX 061335 FWSDMX SPOT FORECAST FOR BAILEY CREEK...IA DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 835 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MAY 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. PLEASE REMEMBER TO SUBMIT A MID BURN OBSERVATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO ENTER THE MIDWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO IOWA ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. DUE TO THE INCREASING NUMBER OF SPOT REQUESTS...IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU REQUEST SPOT FORECASTS THE NIGHT BEFORE A BURN...EVEN IF IT IS JUST FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 9 TO 13 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 8600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 6000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (64100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (77600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 9 TO 13 MPH. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........22 30 40 46 49 56 60 64 73 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............54 56 59 62 65 67 70 68 67 RH..............46 43 39 33 30 28 24 26 27 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW SW SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 EYE LVL WND DIR.W W W W SW SW SW SW S EYE LVL WND SPD.9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 EYE LVL WND GST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 3.9 5.7 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.6 7.3 6.0 MIXNG WIND DIR..W W W SW SW SW SW S S MIXNG WIND SPD..12 10 8 7 8 9 10 12 12 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47. MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (46500 KNOT-FT). WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........78 71 78 88 83 77 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............65 60 56 54 51 50 RH..............29 46 59 69 80 83 20 FT WIND......S 12 S 12 S 12 SE 10 SE 10 SE 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND..S 9 S 9 S 9 SE 7 SE 7 SE 5 EYE LEVEL WIND..15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....4700 1700 300 300 300 300 MIXNG WIND......S 12 S 9 SE 9 SE 12 SE 13 SE 14 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 3 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (76500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (88400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........72 61 50 44 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TEMP............49 58 63 66 RH..............89 67 56 50 20 FT WIND......E 3G5 NW 6 N 10G15 N 12G15 EYE LEVEL WIND..E 2G5 NW 4G5 N 7G15 N 9G15 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1400 5500 7400 MIXNG WIND......S 15 SW 5 W 10 NW 14 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...BOKSA REQUESTED BY...TODD WALROD TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110506.BAILE.01/DMX