FNUS75 KGJT 060448
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST ELK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1048 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS MAY AGAIN
BATTLE BETWEEN UP-CANYON AND DOWN-CANYON. BUT BY MID-AFTERNOON
THE STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE.


.FRIDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNCANYON 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPCANYON AND INCREASING TO
                    5-10 MPH BY NOON. BY 1400 BECOMING WEST 10-15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH DEVELOPING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    9000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING
                    WEST 25 MPH. INCREASING TO 35 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNCANYON 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPCANYON AND INCREASING TO
                    5-10 MPH BY 1300. BY 1400 BECOMING
                    WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    9600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 26 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...PMEDINA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110506.WESTE.01/GJT