FNUS72 KMHX 062022 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAYNE CREEK FIRE...ALLIGATOR RIVER NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 422 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1635 EDT ON MAY 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 7 PM THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL THIS EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 26 MPH...DECREASING TO 8 TO 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............86 92 79 62 50 39 WEATHER COV.........DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM FOG FOG TEMP................67 63 59 56 56 55 RH..................56 70 83 93 93 93 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 12 S 9 SW 6 W 5 W 3 W 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 15 10 5 5 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 4 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 3500 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 9 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............25 15 24 32 36 46 WEATHER COV.........AREAS WEATHER TYPE........FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................54 61 67 69 71 70 RH..................100 78 61 53 47 49 20 FT WIND (MPH)....NW 5 NW 6 NW 7 NW 6 NW 5 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...GLENN REQUESTED BY...HELEN CZERNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110506.PAYNE.02/MHX