FNUS73 KMPX 052031
FWSMPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR GOOSE CREEK SE...U.S. FISH & WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
331 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN OUR
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN GOOD
COOLING AT THE SURFACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING DEW.
HOWEVER...SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM FOR MORNING FROST.
WITH MORNING SUNSHINE...DRYING WILL OCCUR QUICKLY WITH RH VALUES IN
THE 50S BY IGNITION TIME...EVENTUALLY DROPPING INTO THE 30S BY THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING CONTINUES. CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA BASED STRICTLY ON THE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START IN WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIDE EAST WITH TIME FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER ON SATURDAY.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........53 AT IGNITION...MAX 67.
RH..................54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1700-47400) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (60400-80300) LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000-7000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 14 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...FRANKS
REQUESTED BY...ERIC EARHART
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110506.GOOSE.01/MPX