FNUS73 KMPX 061344
FWSMPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR KAERCHER HILLSIDE...FWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
844 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED ACROSS MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE WINDS NEAR THE BURN SITE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS LOW. THE CURRENT WIND DIRECTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEST OF
SOUTH...BUT BY BURN TIME THIS SHOULD BE NEAR DUE SOUTH AND THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
IN FAR AFTER 4 PM DUE TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 71.
RH..................44 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH AT IGNITION...MAX 6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (4000-48600) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (73500-89800) IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500-8000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 17 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....                    SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............64  68  69  71  70  68  67  64
RH..............49  39  34  30  27  23  25  28  32  38
20 FT WIND DIR..S   SSE SSE SSE SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..7   9   10  12  14  14  14  12  11  9
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15  20  25  25  25  25  25  20  15
HAINES INDEX....6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCE
                    OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (51600-80800) DECREASING TO
                    POOR TO FAIR (1300-23800) EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-2100 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 7 TO
                    8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20
                    PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 68.
RH..................MIN 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (3600-39300) INCREASING TO GOOD TO
                    EXCELLENT (46000-85600) LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200-7400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 8 TO 17 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...FRIEDLEIN
REQUESTED BY...DAN ANGELO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110506.KAERC.01/MPX


SKY (%) LEGEND
CLR = CLEAR
MCR = MOSTLY CLEAR
PC = PARTLY CLOUDY
MC = MOSTLY CLOUDY
CDY = CLOUDY