FNUS73 KMPX 061143 FWSMPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELBY WPA...U.S. FISH & WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 643 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MAY 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. MOST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AROUND LADYSMITH BY THE AFTERNOON...AND IN FAR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AFTER 4 PM DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 70. RH..................28 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH AT IGNITION...MAX 6. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (2600-38500) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (61000-79300) IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-9100 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH. TIME (CDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TEMP............55 62 67 69 69 67 RH..............40 28 22 21 21 25 20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 7 SW 8 S 9 S 8 SE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....6 6 5 6 6 6 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 50. RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (29600-76900) DECREASING TO POOR (3500-10600) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-700 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 15 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 13 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 67. RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW TO OR MODERATE. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (5200-51100) INCREASING TO FAIR TO EXCELLENT (18600-63600) IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4300-6000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2700 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 6 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. $$ FORECASTER...MCQUIRTER REQUESTED BY...JAMI MARKLE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110506.SHELB.01/MPX