FNUS73 KAPX 071445 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BERNATHY RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1045 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1040 EDT ON MAY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS UNDER A MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CLEARED BRIEFLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY CLOUDING BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING CUMULUS. THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN TODAY...WITH THE BURN SITE POSSIBLY BECOMING FAIRLY SUNNY. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE WORKING WELL INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL HELP MIX THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OUT INTO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HUMIDITIES THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS AND CERTAINLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING WELL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES THROUGH TOMORROW. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT...BUT GOOD MIXING AGAIN TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN EVEN LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES THAN THIS AFTERNOON. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........49 AT IGNITION...MAX 59. RH..................74 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 4 TO 7 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400). TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........82 73 73 47 47 47 35 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............49 52 53 57 58 59 59 RH..............74 63 57 42 36 32 32 20 FT WIND DIR..N NE E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..2 4 3 5 4 5 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......100 100 200 200 300 300 400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36. RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-400 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........35 35 28 28 28 28 28 28 16 16 16 16 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............57 55 53 50 47 44 43 42 40 39 39 38 RH..............38 43 46 50 63 76 79 79 82 82 82 85 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E SE S SW W N N 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 4 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 SMOKE DISP......400 300 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63. RH..................MIN 27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500-6800 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1000). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........16 31 31 31 40 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............36 41 51 58 61 62 RH..............92 76 52 39 36 31 20 FT WIND......N 2 NE 2 E 5 E 6 E 7 E 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......0 100 600 900 900 800 $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE THOMPSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110507.BERNA.01/APX