FNUS75 KGJT 071401
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ONE MILE...USFS GUNNISON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
801 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0745 MDT ON MAY 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 7500 FEET...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 7500 FEET...

.DISCUSSION...
FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
TO FORM ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS TROF WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
AND DEEPEN ON SUNDAY...TIGHTENING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY WITH DEEPER MIXING
IN PLACE. ELEVATIONS BELOW 7500 FEET WILL HAVE FUELS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
FIRE GROWTH WHERE A COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODERATE
INVERSIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SHOULD QUICKLY LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS FOR POOR
SMOKE DISPERSAL. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT TO CREATE SOME STRONGER GUSTS AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 TO 8 MPH THROUGH
                    1000 AM MDT...THEN BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
                    INCREASING TO AROUND 16 MPH BY NOON. GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID AND LATE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 AM MDT...THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT BY NOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 10200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR BY MID EVENING.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 8 MPH THROUGH 1000 AM
                    MDT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH...THEN INCREASING
                    TO AROUND 18 MPH BY 1 PM MDT. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 AM MDT...THEN INCREASING
                    TO EXCELLENT BY NOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9900 FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 MPH INCREASING TO 28 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...J  CHONKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110507.ONEMI.01/GJT