FNUS72 KMHX 072133
FWSMHX

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY FIRE...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
533 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1716 EDT ON MAY 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND
                    6 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............27     45     59     77     92     90
WEATHER COV.........                            CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP................69     65     63     61     60     59
RH..................45     63     70     75     78     80
20 FT WIND (MPH)....E 6    SE 3   S 5    S 5    SW 5   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5
HAINES INDEX........4      4      4      5      5      5

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 6 MPH
                    ...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............90     96     88     84     81     76
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP................58     61     66     70     72     72
RH..................86     81     68     59     53     53
20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 4    W 4    NW 3   NW 2   N 2    N 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5                    5
HAINES INDEX........4      3      3      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...GLENN
REQUESTED BY...HELEN CZERNIK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110507.PAINS.01/MHX