FNUS72 KMHX 071024 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAYNE CREEK FIRE...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 624 AM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0609 EDT ON MAY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6000-6700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH...BECOMING NORTH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............29 25 25 25 25 31 WEATHER COV.........AREAS PATCHY WEATHER TYPE........FOG FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................52 56 64 69 71 68 RH..................93 86 65 54 49 51 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 4 NW 5 NW 7 N 7 N 7 NE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 15 15 HAINES INDEX........4 5 5 5 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............39 45 59 77 92 90 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................66 62 60 59 58 57 RH..................56 70 78 80 83 86 20 FT WIND (MPH)....E 6 SE 3 S 3 S 3 SW 3 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX........3 4 4 4 5 5 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............87 85 77 65 57 49 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................58 62 65 67 69 69 RH..................86 78 73 68 66 66 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 4 W 4 NW 2 NW 2 N 2 N 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...DAIL REQUESTED BY...HELEN CZERNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110507.PAYNE.01/MHX