FNUS72 KMHX 071606 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAYNE CREEK FIRE...USFWS ALLIGATOR RIVER NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1206 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1141 EDT ON MAY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... CURRENT N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME E AND SE 5-10 MPH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM SW WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT E THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH... BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH GUSTING TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............1 1 9 20 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................71 75 74 72 RH..................46 40 40 50 20 FT WIND (MPH)....N 7 NE 6 ENE 7 E 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX........5 5 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 7 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO NORTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............27 45 59 77 92 90 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................66 62 60 59 58 57 RH..................56 70 78 80 83 86 20 FT WIND (MPH)....E 6 SE 3 S 3 S 3 SW 3 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX........3 4 4 4 5 5 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3400-4900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............87 85 77 65 57 49 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................58 62 65 67 69 69 RH..................86 78 73 68 66 66 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 4 W 4 NW 2 NW 2 N 2 N 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...MERRELL REQUESTED BY...HELEN CZERNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110507.PAYNE.02/MHX