FNUS72 KJAX 081948
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR EDDY TOWER...USDA- FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1535 EDT ON MAY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
DUE TO LOW RHS AND HIGH ERC VALUES...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
SOUTH TONIGHT. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DISPERSIONS WILL BE VERY HIGH ON MONDAY. RH'S ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOVE CRITICALLY LOW VALUES...BUT STILL FALL TO NEAR 40 PERCENT.

SURFACE WINDS...WSW 10 MPH OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DECREASE TO 5 MPH FROM THE SW TO W
THROUGH TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM 1000 TO 1500 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY SMOKE
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1500 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....3.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........29     34     34     35     39     39
WEATHER COV.....                            PATCHY PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   SMOKE  SMOKE
TEMP............86     80     74     72     69     67
RH..............38     52     64     73     82     89
20 FT WIND......W 8    W 6    SW 7   SW 7   SW 6   W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10            10
MIX HGT (FT)....4200   1500   1500   900    400    400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 12   W 10   W 10   W 8    W 7    W 7
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS SHIFTING N TO NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
                    6 TO 8 MPH. NW TO N GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY
                    LATE MORNING.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500-6800 FT
                    AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 9 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....93.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........42     47     47     47     47     47
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE
TEMP............66     68     81     88     91     91
RH..............95     91     61     48     41     41
20 FT WIND......W 6    W 6    NW 8   NW 8   N 8    N 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     15     20     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1000   1600   1600   4200   6800   6800
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9    W 12   W 12   NW 13  NW 13  NW 13
LAL.............1      1      1      1      2      2

$$
FORECASTER...ENYEDI
REQUESTED BY...PETER MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110508.EDDYT.02/JAX