FNUS72 KJAX 082301
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR INATIAL ATTACK...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
701 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1846 EDT ON MAY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
SOUTH TONIGHT. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DISPERSIONS WILL BE VERY HIGH ON MONDAY. RH'S ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOVE CRITICALLY LOW VALUES...BUT STILL FALL TO NEAR 40 PERCENT.

SURFACE WINDS...WSW 5 TO 8 MPH OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO 5 MPH FROM THE WSW
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM 1000 TO
2000 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT. SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...WINDS BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
FOR SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1500 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........32     35     35     35     39     41
WEATHER COV.....AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE
TEMP............86     80     74     71     69     67
RH..............42     58     68     77     86     93
20 FT WIND......W 8    W 6    SW 6   SW 6   W 6    W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....4200   1500   1500   900    400    1000
TRANSPORT WIND..W 12   W 10   W 10   W 9    W 8    W 9
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20
                    MPH POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700-7100 FT
                    AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 9 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....100.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........41     45     45     46     47     47
WEATHER COV.....AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............65     68     80     87     90     90
RH..............96     92     62     49     42     42
20 FT WIND......W 6    W 7    NW 8   NW 8   N 8    N 8
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     15     20     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1000   1600   1600   4300   7100   7100
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9    W 12   W 12   NW 13  NW 14  NW 14
LAL.............1      2      2      2      2      2

$$
FORECASTER...ENYEDI
REQUESTED BY...BRETT FAY  SOPL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110508.INATI.01/JAX