FNUS75 KBOU 091538 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR DELANY BUTTES RX...BLM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 938 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...JUST WEST OF THE BURN AREA. THE DISTURBANCE COULD KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCES OF A STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SITE IS LOW. STILL...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS FROM NEARBY STORMS COULD REACH THE SITE. THE STORMS WILL END BY 2200. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY WITH THE WIND SHIFT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%). MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER 1300. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200...MAINLY OVER THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65. MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-8 MPH...INCREASING TO 14-24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 24-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800-7800 FT AGL UNTIL 1300. 12200-13200 FT AGL AFTER 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. RAIN COULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-37. MAX HUMIDITY........65-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 11-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 6-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 5000-6000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. GOOD AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-57. MIN HUMIDITY........23-29%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 13-23 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER 1000. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 10000-11000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 0800. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR DELAN BUTTES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/09-09 34 0 0 49 27 S13 21 3 1 S40 5276 S30 136371 V 05/09-10 34 0 0 53 24 S15 24 3 1 S45 6314 S29 160090 E 05/09-11 34 0 0 55 21 S16 26 2 1 S48 7353 S29 183809 E 05/09-12 81 10 2 57 20 S18 30 2 2 S49 8391 S29 207527 E 05/09-13 81 10 2 60 18 SW21 33 2 2 S47 9991 S26 224189 E 05/09-14 81 10 2 61 17 SW23 37 3 2 S43 11591 S24 240850 E 05/09-15 81 10 2 62 16 W24 39 3 2 S38 13192 S23 257512 E 05/09-16 81 10 2 61 17 SW22 36 3 2 S33 12605 S24 262007 E 05/09-17 81 10 2 60 18 SW18 30 2 2 S30 12019 S25 266502 E 05/09-18 66 10 2 58 19 SW16 25 2 2 S28 11433 S28 270997 E 05/09-19 66 10 2 56 21 SW16 26 2 2 S28 9747 SW26 225180 E 05/09-20 66 10 2 51 25 SW17 28 2 2 S28 8061 SW25 179362 E 05/09-21 66 10 2 47 30 SW17 28 2 2 S30 6375 SW24 133545 V 05/09-22 66 10 2 45 34 SW14 22 2 2 S31 6031 SW24 125787 V 05/09-23 66 10 2 43 38 SW 8 14 2 2 SW33 5687 SW24 118030 V 05/10-00 45 10 2 42 42 SW 5 5 2 1 SW36 5343 SW24 110272 V 05/10-01 45 10 2 40 46 SW 3 3 2 1 SW37 5265 SW23 106429 V 05/10-02 45 10 2 40 48 SW 5 5 2 1 SW38 5187 SW23 102586 V 05/10-03 45 10 2 37 57 SW 6 6 2 1 SW39 5109 SW22 98744 G 05/10-04 45 10 2 36 62 SW 6 6 2 1 SW38 4938 SW22 95272 G 05/10-05 45 10 2 35 67 SW 7 7 2 1 SW37 4767 SW22 91801 G 05/10-06 57 0 0 36 66 SW 8 13 2 1 SW35 4596 SW22 88330 G 05/10-07 57 0 0 38 61 SW10 16 2 1 SW30 5460 SW24 121004 V 05/10-08 57 0 0 40 54 SW13 20 2 1 SW25 6323 SW28 153677 E 05/10-09 57 0 0 43 46 SW15 24 2 1 W18 7186 SW30 186351 E 05/10-10 57 0 0 46 39 SW17 28 2 1 SW16 8351 SW29 202183 E 05/10-11 57 0 0 49 35 W20 31 2 1 SW16 9516 SW26 218016 E 05/10-12 74 10 2 51 32 W21 33 2 1 SW18 10681 SW25 233850 E 05/10-13 74 10 2 52 31 W20 32 2 1 SW23 10840 SW25 238998 E 05/10-14 74 10 2 53 30 W18 29 2 1 SW28 11000 SW25 244145 E 05/10-15 74 10 2 54 29 W16 25 2 1 SW35 11159 SW25 249293 E 05/10-16 74 10 2 54 30 W15 23 2 1 SW39 10942 SW26 246992 E 05/10-17 74 10 2 53 31 W13 21 2 1 SW44 10725 SW26 244690 E 05/10-18 99 20 4 52 33 W12 18 2 1 SW48 10508 SW26 242388 E 05/10-19 99 20 4 50 36 W 9 9 2 1 SW51 8787 SW23 184703 E 05/10-20 99 20 4 46 41 W 7 7 2 1 SW53 7065 SW18 127019 V 05/10-21 99 20 4 43 48 NW 6 6 2 1 SW53 5344 SW15 69334 G 05/10-22 99 20 4 40 53 NW 5 5 2 1 SW52 5270 SW13 56817 F 05/10-23 99 20 4 39 58 N 5 5 2 1 SW48 5195 S 9 44301 F 05/11-00 100 30 9 37 62 N 5 5 2 1 SW43 5121 S 7 31785 P 05/11-01 100 30 9 36 66 NE 5 5 2 1 S35 4665 SE 6 24815 P 05/11-02 100 30 9 34 69 NE 5 5 2 1 S26 4209 E 5 17845 P 05/11-03 100 30 9 33 72 E 5 5 2 1 SE21 3752 E 3 10874 P 05/11-04 100 30 9 33 73 NE 6 6 2 1 S23 3708 E 7 21116 P 05/11-05 100 30 9 32 74 NE 7 7 2 1 S29 3664 NE10 31358 P 05/11-06 100 30 9 33 73 NE 8 8 2 1 S35 3620 NE13 41600 F 05/11-07 100 30 9 34 69 NE 9 9 2 1 S37 4128 NE15 56103 F 05/11-08 100 30 9 35 67 NE10 10 2 1 SE38 4636 NE17 70605 G 05/11-09 100 30 9 37 61 NE12 18 2 1 SE37 5144 NE20 85107 G 05/11-10 100 30 9 40 56 NE13 21 2 1 SE32 5327 NE17 77436 G 05/11-11 100 30 9 41 53 NE14 22 2 1 S25 5510 E15 69764 G 05/11-12 100 30 9 43 51 NE14 22 2 1 S18 5693 E13 62092 G 05/11-13 100 30 9 44 50 NE13 21 2 1 S14 6032 E10 55818 F 05/11-14 100 30 9 44 49 NE12 20 2 1 SW10 6371 E 9 49543 F 05/11-15 100 30 9 45 49 NE10 10 2 1 W 9 6710 NE 7 43268 F 05/11-16 100 30 9 45 49 NE 9 9 2 1 W 9 6694 NE 7 43171 F 05/11-17 100 30 9 44 50 NE 7 7 2 1 W10 6677 NE 7 43075 F 05/11-18 82 20 4 44 52 NE 6 6 2 1 NW12 6661 NE 7 42979 F 05/11-19 82 20 4 43 54 N 6 6 2 1 NW13 6273 NE 8 42091 F 05/11-20 82 20 4 41 59 N 6 6 2 1 NW14 5885 N 8 41204 F 05/11-21 82 20 4 39 64 N 6 6 2 1 NW15 5497 N 8 40317 F 05/11-22 82 20 4 37 68 NW 5 5 2 1 NW16 5282 N 9 40643 F 05/11-23 82 20 4 36 71 NW 3 3 2 1 NW17 5067 NW 9 40969 F 05/12-00 75 20 4 35 74 W 3 3 2 1 NW18 4852 NW10 41294 F 05/12-01 75 20 4 35 76 W 3 3 2 1 NW20 4669 NW12 48164 F 05/12-02 75 20 4 34 79 W 5 5 2 1 NW21 4485 NW14 55033 F 05/12-03 75 20 4 33 81 W 6 6 2 1 NW22 4301 NW16 61903 G 05/12-04 75 20 4 33 81 W 6 6 2 1 NW23 4223 NW18 68244 G 05/12-05 75 20 4 33 82 W 6 6 2 1 NW24 4145 NW21 74586 G 05/12-06 67 0 0 33 82 W 6 6 2 1 NW24 4067 NW23 80928 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...CRAIG DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110509.DELAN.01/BOU